Commerce & Trade - Challenges and Prospects
[Credited to a group of 6 x officers]
Issues of Market Access and
Geographical Diversification.
Burdened by
a perpetual negative balance of trade, Pakistan’s trade and commerce policy
initiatives do not seem to bolster our exports. Reasons may vary from lack of
coordination between the stake-holders, tunnel and simplistic vision regarding
concept of globalization and regional trade, international trade parameters of
the 21st Century, lack of product diversification and value chain
management, ill-regulated domestic commerce to an obvious understanding deficit
of the policy makers of the whole paradigm.
Pakistan’s
exports concentrate only on the textile sector with little effort towards
product diversification. Technology improvements in value chain have not
touched local industry which lacks competitiveness even within the country.
There is an absolute lack of competitive standards and quality management
exacerbated by archaic regulatory mechanism. While power shortage may be a
factor in less production capacity, the installed capacity of industry may also
not be enough to gain additional market access and a foot print where other
countries have already made a niche in the imports of the host country.
Regional
trade is gaining strength world over due to proximity of markets but Pakistan’s
reliance is still on a distant export location whose relationship strategically
and politically is always fluid and not dependable. Our trade relationships are
always strained with immediate neighbours except China for whom our exports
form less than a percent in their imports. While India may have been denied
transit access to ECO and CAR we have also not utilized this window to properly
access that market. The RTAs and BTAs have not been well thought out. In most
cases our strengths in export have not been made part of the preference.
We have not
been able to utilize trade diplomacy – in fact it has been the other way round
where foreign missions which could be used to advocate trade diplomatically are
planned to be closed while our neighbours plan treading uncharted waters in
Africa, Latin America and the icy Arctic Council.
A serious
re-think of our entire economy especially commerce and trade sector is required
– that too by actual Specialists based on true data and experience than those
in the habit of desk reviews alone. Only through a vibrant and structured
policy with time-lined implementables can Pakistan hope to achieve any sort of
benefit from the globalization at high pace which has nearly overtaken us.
Market capture by our competitors can only be pre-empted by increasing market
access, geographical and product diversification, value chain management and
increasing competitiveness.
|
AFTA
|
Asean
Free Trade Area
|
|
ASEAN
|
Association
of South Asian Nations
|
|
BTA
|
Bilateral
Trade Agreement
|
|
Bil
|
Billion
|
|
BIMSTEC
|
Bay
of Bengal Initiative for Multi Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation
|
|
ECOTA
|
Economic
Co Operation Organization Trade Agreement
|
|
EHP
|
Earliest
Harvest Programme
|
|
EU
|
European
Union
|
|
GATT
|
General
Agreement on Tariff and Trade
|
|
GCC
|
Gulf
Cooperation Council
|
|
IMF
|
International
Monetary Fund
|
|
MERCOSUR
|
Mercado
Comun Del Sur (South American Common Market)
|
|
Mil
|
Million
|
|
MT
|
Metric
Ton
|
|
NAFTA
|
North
American Free Trade Agreement
|
|
NTB
|
Non
Tariff Barrier
|
|
PT
|
Preferential
Treatment
|
|
PTA
|
Preferential
Trade Agreement
|
|
RTA
|
Regional
Trade Agreement
|
|
SAARC
|
South
Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
|
|
SAFTA
|
South
Asian Free Trade Area
|
|
STPF
|
Strategic
Trade Poliucy Framework
|
|
USD
|
United
States Dollar
|
|
WB
|
World
Bank
|
|
WTO
|
World
Trade Organization
|
Section 1 – Pakistan’s Trade
1.1 Globalization
versus Regionalism in Trade
Interdependence of countries resulting from the increasing movement
of factors of production, integration of trade, finance, people, technology and
ideas in one global marketplace has led to ‘Globalization’. International trade
and cross-border investment flows are the main elements of this integration. Globalization
started after World War II but has accelerated considerably since the mid 1980s,
more so due to increasing liberalization of trade and capital markets: more and
more governments are refusing to protect their economies from foreign competition
or influence through import tariffs and NTBs such as import quotas, export
restraints and legal prohibitions. A number of international institutions
established in the wake of World War II—including the WB, IMF, GATT, WTO have
played an important role in promoting free trade in place of protectionism. [1]
GATT came into force on 1 Jan, 1948 and
remained in vogue till 1994 with Pakistan a signatory to it. The objectives of
GATT included trade towards raising standards of living, ensuring full
employment and a large and steadily growing volume of real income and effective
demand, developing the full use of the resources of the world and expanding the
production and exchange of goods. The member countries agreed to enter into
reciprocal and mutually advantageous arrangements directed towards substantial
reduction of tariffs and other barriers to trade and to the elimination of
discriminatory treatment in international commerce. [2] After
the Uruguay round of GATT negotiations during 1986-94 the WTO came into being
on 1 Jan, 1995. It extended GATT as, in addition to it, WTO comprises the
General Agreement on Trade in Services and the agreements on Trade Related
Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights. GATT also was, at least formally, only
an agreement between contracting parties and had no independent existence of
its own while the WTO is a corporate body recognized under international law.
WTO is basically
“Trade Without Discrimination” and enforces equal treatment for all Member
Countries, their citizens in all Members, promotes fair competition and
encourages development and economic reform. [3]
RTAs, mostly reciprocal, have become increasingly
prevalent since the early 1990s. As of 31 July 2013, some 575 notifications of
RTAs had been received by the GATT/WTO. Of these, 379 were in force. [4]
For the purpose of minimalism FTAs and PTAs would also be included in this
paper under RTAs although they are unilateral trade preferences. Some of the
significant RTAs are EU, NAFTA, AFTA, GCC, MERCOSUR etc.
1.2 Pakistan – Trade
Agreements
Pakistan has signed SAFTA as an RTA, FTAs with China,
Malaysia and Sri Lanka and PTAs with Mauritius, Indonesia and Iran. An
assessment and analysis of individual agreements has been framed and given
below. All figures are in USD Million and for sake of convenience each
Agreement has an exclusive block:
SAFTA
(6 Jan, 2004)
|
Exports
before Agreement
|
Exports
Volume 2011-12
|
%
age (+/-)
|
|
|
886 in 2003-04
|
3533 in 2011-12
|
300 %
|
|
Major Exports
|
Rice, fish, raw cotton, woven cotton fabrics, cotton
yarn, synthetic fabrics, raw sugar, pharmaceuticals products, machinery &
its parts and iron & steel.
|
||
|
Analysis
|
Issues of political nature between Pakistan and
India have affected the true potential of trade (explained under Pak-India
relationship later)
|
||
|
Pak-China FTA
(effective 2007)
|
Exports
before Agreement
|
Exports
Volume 2011-12
|
%
age (+/-)
|
|
|
506 in 2006
|
2620 in 2012 [5]
|
417 %
|
|
Major Exports
|
Cotton / Textile, low grade Rice, Leather, Fish,
gems, Chromium
|
||
|
Analysis
|
Pakistan is contributing 0.1 % to China’s imports along these
product lines [6],
whereas China has become the 2nd largest source of Pakistan’s imports,
which are around 25 % of the total imports excluding petroleum products. China’s share in Pakistan’s total exports is
10.6 %. [7] The FTA does not grant
any concession to Pakistan’s strength i.e. Cotton/textiles.
|
||
|
Pak-Malaysia FTA
(EHP – 2006, FTA
2007)
|
Exports
before Agreement
|
Exports
Volume 2011-12
|
%
age (+/-)
|
|
|
60 in 2006
|
233 in 2012 [8]
|
288 %
|
|
Major Exports
|
Fish, Potato, Onion, Rice, Cotton, Yarn, woven
fabrics, synthetic staple fibre, bed linen, leather footwear, cutlery, fruits,
electrical appliances and accessories [9]
|
||
|
Analysis
|
Pakistan’s exports only form 0.118 % of Malaysia’s imports and
have in fact declined from US$
243.054 million in 2011 to USD 233.479 in 2012 whereas Malaysia’s imports
actually increased from USD 187 Bil in 2011 to USD 196 Bil in 2012. [10]
45 % of Pakistan’s total exports to Malaysia comprise of non-PT products. Pakistan’s
imports of Palm Oil from Malaysia are USD 1.12 Bil in 2012 [11]
whereas market access to our Basmati Rice, in demand over there, is hampered
due to state monopsony (BERNAS) which negotiates lower prices from Pakistan
as an NTB.
|
||
|
Pak-Sri Lanks FTA
(12 Jun, 2005)
|
Exports
before Agreement
|
Exports
Volume
2011-12
|
%
age (+/-)
|
|
|
153 in 2005
|
300 in 2012 [12]
|
288 %
|
|
Major Exports
|
Cement, oranges, Long Grained
Pakistani Rice (basmati), vegetables and engineering goods. [13] Export of Rice is upto
6000 MT per year and potatoes upto 1000 MT during the off season.
Cotton/textile and food group comprise nearly half of our exports.
|
||
|
Analysis
|
Sri Lanka
has desired long term partnership in cement imports from Pakistan [14]
|
||
|
Pak-Indonesia PTA
(effective 1 Sep,
2013)
|
Exports
before Agreement
|
Exports
Volume
2011-12
|
%
age (+/-)
|
|
|
|
USD 236 M in 2012 [15]
|
|
|
Major Exports
|
Fresh fruits, fish, food items including
rice and wheat, cotton yarn, cotton fabrics, readymade garments, fans, sports
goods, leather goods and other industrial products
|
||
|
Analysis
|
Indonesia has offered market access to
Kinnow (mandarin) and oranges from Pakistan at 0% tariff, providing level
playing field to this product in the Indonesian market. Pakistan’s exports to
Indonesia in 2011 were USD 188.5 Mil and in 2012 were USD 236.3 Mil. [16]
|
||
|
Pak-Mauritius PTA
(effective 30 Nov,
2007)
|
Exports
before Agreement
|
Exports
Volume
2011-12
|
%
age (+/-)
|
|
|
35 in 2007
|
23 in 2012 [17]
|
(34) %
|
|
Major Exports
|
Rice, cotton yarn, woven fabric, cotton fabric,
bakery items, pharmaceuticals
|
||
|
Analysis
|
The PTA is more beneficial as a transit
towards African markets for Pakistani products.
|
||
|
Pak-Iran PTA
(effective 1 Sep,
2006)
|
Exports
before Agreement
|
Exports
Volume
2011-12
|
%
age (+/-)
|
|
|
178 in 2005
|
141 in 2012 [18]
|
(20) %
|
|
Major Exports
|
Rice, Fruits, Cotton/textiles, Sea craft, Vegetables,
Meat, Vegetable, chemicals, molasses
|
||
|
Analysis
|
India has captured Rice market in Iran.
Exporters blame absence of a ‘Currency Swap’ agreement also. [19] Strict quarantine
requirements of Iran also act as an NTB.
|
||
1.3 Pakistan’s Exports to other
Regions & Countries
Pakistan’s
exports to other trading partners is as below. The figures indicate Pakistan is
such a minor trading partner in exports in most cases that it can conveniently
be waived off:
|
Region
/ Country
|
Export
in 2007 (in USD Millions)
|
Export
in 2012 (in USD Million)
|
%
age increase / decrease
|
%
age market share of imports
|
|
US
|
3853
|
3668
|
(4.7)
|
0.16
|
|
ASEAN
|
419
|
1092
|
160.6
|
0.09
|
|
EU
|
4798
|
5306
|
10.5
|
0.09
|
|
UAE
|
21147
|
28728
|
35.84
|
1.42
|
|
OCEANIA
|
160
|
219
|
38.87
|
0.07
|
|
CAR
|
11
|
13
|
18.18
|
0.02
|
|
Afghanistan
|
837
|
2099
|
150.7
|
33.83
|
|
GCC
|
2765
|
3706
|
34.03
|
0.91
|
|
Hong Kong
|
608
|
416
|
(31.5)
|
0.08
|
|
Africa
|
985
|
1604
|
62.8
|
0.28
|
|
Japan
|
124
|
191
|
54
|
0.02
|
(Own calculation by the Group from information of ITC,
trademap.org)
1.4 Pakistan-India
Trade Relations
India and
Pakistan were major trading partners after independence. In 1948-49, 56% of
Pakistan’s total exports were destined to India and 32% of Pakistan’s imports
were from India. India had granted MFN status to Pakistan in 1995. Pakistan did
not reciprocate by granting the same concessions to India, which consequently
maintained a number of Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) against imports from Pakistan.
On the other hand, Pakistan maintained a ‘positive list’ of importable items
from India which has been continuously increasing reaching 1945 items by the
end of 2011. The bilateral trade between Pakistan and India jumped from USD
1.51 Bil in 2008-09 to USD 2.35 Bil in 2012-13 i.e. by 55 percent. Informal and
illegal trade is also estimated to match the trade through legal channels.
Pakistan’s
major imports from India comprise intermediate goods that being cheaper than
alternate sources of imports enhance the competitiveness of our industry. The
following table shows the year-wise figures of bilateral trade between India
and Pakistan in the last five years in USD in Mil[20]:
|
Years
|
Exports
|
Imports
|
Total Trade
|
Balance
|
|
2007-08
|
254.858
|
1701.445
|
1956.303
|
(-) 1446.587
|
|
2008-09
|
319.619
|
1194.605
|
1514.224
|
(-) 874.986
|
|
2009-2010
|
268.332
|
1225.567
|
1493.899
|
(-) 957.235
|
|
2010-2011
|
264.3
|
1743.2
|
2007.5
|
(-) 1478.9
|
|
2011-2012
|
338.517
|
1507.328
|
1845.845
|
(-) 1168.811
|
|
2012-2013 till Apr
|
271.089
|
1568.750
|
1839.839
|
(-) 1297.661
|
Structural
restrictions to trade and investment could be overcome if Pakistan grants MFN
status to India. This would give fillip to free flow of goods and capital, as
in the case of other countries under WTO regime. In
the case of Pakistan, our exporters report Pakistan-specific bias in
interpretation and application of the rules by the Customs and other Indian government
departments. The tariff of India is 12.5% generally. However in the case of the
products of export interest to Pakistan, the picture is more complicated.
Textile and garments are subject to 'composite tariff’ meaning that these are
subject to specific tariff in addition to ad-valorem tariff. [21] The Pakistan-India
Business Council’s website lists Joint
Pakistan India Economic Zone, Petroleum University, Gwadar Oil City and Gwadar
Oil Terminal as major initiatives. [22] Using a gravity model, the World Bank study concludes that
had Pakistan and India traded as two other countries of comparable GNPs,
population, and sharing a multitude of cultural ties, with a border in common
and comparable distance between them, they would have both increased their level
of import demands. [23]
1.5 Pak
EU Trade (GSP Plus status)
The
European Union (EU) in December, 2013 granted Generalized Scheme of Preferences
(GPS) + status till 2017. The GSP + status will allow almost 20 % of Pakistani
exports to enter the EU market at zero tariff and 70 % at preferential rates
from January 2014. This status would enable Pakistan to export more than USD 1 Bil
worth of products to European markets. [24]While
Sri Lanka and Bangladesh enjoy duty free access to EU, China does not enjoy GSP
Plus facility in EU. Thus Pakistani products shall have a cost advantage of
nearly 14% over Chinese products in Textile made-ups. Similarly, India has
graduated out from GSP facility for textiles and shall have to pay MFN duties.
As regards textile made-ups and garments, India will be in the GSP (general)
category while Pakistan enjoys the GSP Plus status.
2.1 Export Commodities of Pakistan
The Textile
Group includes Raw Cotton, Cotton Yarn, Cotton Cloth, Cotton carded and
combed, Yarn other than Cotton Yarn, Knitwear, Bedwear, Towels, Tents, Canvas
and Tarpaulin, Readymade Garments, Art Silk & Synthetic Textile and Madeup
Articles including other textile. Textile sector contributed 53.3% share in
total exports of Pakistan in 2012-13, which were 52.2% in 2011-12. The exports
of Textile Sector have shown a mixed trend over the few years. The export of raw cotton has decreased substantially in the
year 2012-13 but on the other hand exports of cotton
yarn, Cotton Cloth, Knitwear, Bedwear, Towels, Tents,
canvas & Tarpaulin and Readymade garments have witnessed a notable
increase in their exports during 2012-13 as compared to 2011-12. Import Markets of Textile Products are
USA, Canada, UK, Germany, Italy, Belgium, France, Spain, Netherlands, Turkey,
Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Top 5 exporters of raw cotton are
USA, India, Australia, Brazil and Uzbekistan.
The Food
Group includes Rice (Basmati and others), Fish and Fish preparations,
Fruits, Vegetables including Leguminous Vegetables, Tobacco including
Cigarettes, Wheat, Spices, Oil Seeds, nuts and Kernals, Sugar and Meat and Meat
preparations. Its exports in 2012 amounted to USD 2.062 Bil from USD 2.807 in
2011. However, there is a trend of increase in 2012-13 primarily due to
increase in exports of vegetables, spices and Meat and Meat preparations. [26]
Import Markets include mainly UAE,
Afghanistan, Kenya, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and Oman. In Rice the top 5 exporters are India, Thailand,
Vietnam, USA and Pakistan.
Sports goods include Footballs, Gloves and
other sports goods. In 2011 and 2012 the exports are USD 218 Mil. Markets are
Germany, USA, UK, Belgium, Spain, Denmark and Brazil.
Leather exports include Leather Tanned,
Leather Garments and Leather Gloves. Footwear include Leather Footwear, Canvas
Footwear and other Footwear. Leather
Industry of Pakistan is among top 3 Foreign Exchange earners of the Country.
The Total exports are USD 1143.9 Million in 2012-13 up from USD 1048.6 Million
in 2011-12. It contributes 4.42% of our export earnings, 2.67% of manufacturing
GDP and provides jobs to more than one million people. Its market (hides only) is
Hong Kong, China, Italy, Korea, Vietnam, Turkey and Germany. Top 5 exporters in
leather products are China, Italy, Hong Kong, France and Germany.
Chemicals &
Pharmaceutical products
include Fertilizer Manufactured, Plastic Material, Pharmaceutical Products and
other chemicals. Markets are Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Philippines,
Sudan, Myanmar and others.
Engineering Goods include Electric Fans, Transport
Equipment, Auto Parts, Machinery specialized for particular Industries and
other Electric Machinery. In 2012 the value of exports was USD 167 Mil from USD
150 Mil in 2011.
The Petroleum
and Coal Group includes Petroleum Crude, Petroleum products including
top naphtha and coal. Export of
petroleum products has shown a fluctuating trend during the years 2007-2013. In
the year 2007-08 exports were about USD 1259.4 Mil 2010-11 onward there is
sharp decline in POL exports.
Other items include Molasses,
Carpets, Rugs and Mats, Jewellery, Gems, Furniture, Handicrafts, Cement,
Surgical Goods & Medical Instruments. Exports of Basic surgical instruments
mostly of disposable products for year 2012-13 were USD 303.5 Million down from
USD 303.9 Million in 2011-12. Major export destinations included USA, Germany,
UK, France, Italy, India, China, Russia, Japan and Australia. Similarly in
2012-13, Pakistan exported carpets (hand knotted) of worth US$ 122.4 million up
from USD 120.8 Million of 2011-12. Major destinations were USA, Germany,
Turkey, Italy, France, Japan,
South Africa, United Kingdom, Canada and Afghanistan. Exports in
gems in 2012-13 were of USD 4.6 Million while in Jewellery they were USD 1177.5
Million. Major markets are USA, UAE, U.K , Hong Kong, Germany, Thailand and
Canada. Pakistan also exports Cutlery, Guar and Guar Products.
However,
despite such diversity in exports the trade balance is in negative.
Different Pakistani state institutions provide different data. State Bank of
Pakistan calculates the difference as USD (15,406) Mil (Exports – Imports =
24795 – 40199) while the Bureau of Statistics, for the same period 2012-13 puts
it at USD (21288) Million (Exports – Imports = 23664 – 43498) justifying an
urgent need for increase in market access, geographical and product
diversification, value change management amongst other measures.
2.2 Export Potential
The ‘Gravity’ Model
of trade based on data for the period 1981-2005 across 42 countries indicates
that Pakistan’s trade potential is highest with ASEAN, EU, the Middle East,
Latin America and North America. Specifically, the
maximum potential exists with Japan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Malaysia, the
Philippines, New Zealand in the Asia-Pacific region, Norway, Sweden, France,
Italy and Denmark in the EU block, with Iran in the Middle East and with Mexico
in Latin American region. SAARC’s low potential is due to political
considerations between the member counties similar to Pakistan’s exports to EU
and NAFTA getting adversely affected due to this same reason. The
sectoral level analysis indicates the existence of high trade potential in
textiles, leather products, chemicals, food, beverages, and tobacco products. [27]
2.3 Product Diversity
Diversity
is required in exports to reduce vulnerability to demand side shocks and price
swings in international markets.[28]
Diversity could be achieved through improving the quality of existing exports,
breaking into new geographic markets, increasing services exports and increase of
production of goods and services used as inputs for export. Exports
diversification could be done from traditional to non-traditional exports,
agricultural to manufacturing exports, low productivity to high productivity
goods and upgradation of quality of existing goods.
Pakistan
needs product diversification in order to get a quantum jump in its exports
level and to capture niche markets. The product categories are fisheries,
poultry, fruit, vegetables, wheat, IT software and services, marble and
granite, gems and jewelry, engineering goods, chemicals, healthcare and general
services including that of back office. Pakistan should also capitalize on
opportunities provided by e-Commerce.
Pakistan
should look in the region around itself and look for export opportunities in
nontraditional areas by becoming part of supply chains through regional trade.
For example low-cost engineering goods imported from China should be assembled
as intermediate goods in Pakistan and exported to regional markets after
value-addition. Similarly, we should look for opportunities for trade in very
basic industries in Afghanistan. Services sector like banking and information
technology can become a major source of our exports as our workforce is
English-speaking and can tap markets left by India as it matures into becoming
IT hub for the world.
Similarly
we can utilize opportunities offered by internet and e-commerce to market
products like our fashion garments to customers around the world through small
and medium sized entrepreneurship. Women who constitute one half of our labour
force and are usually underutilized can be trained in embroidery and fashion
garment industry to export their products to neighbouring countries like India
without profiteering at the hands of middlemen.
2.4 Value Chain – Case Studies on
Textile and Leather groups
The four
essentials of Value Chain are (i) Raw Material; (ii) Semi Finished Product;
(iii) Finished Product; and (iv) Branded products. In cotton/textile sector the
steps are raw cotton, spinning producing yarn, weaving/knitting,
dyeing/finishing, fabrics going towards branding and product design. [29]
The Syndicate carried out an exercise to evaluate pricing [30]
and percentage amongst all the cotton / textile related products as below, with
the exported value in USD in thousands:
|
S.No
|
Product label
|
Exported value in 2010
|
Exported value in 2011
|
Exported value in 2012
|
%age
|
|
1
|
Cotton
|
248,874
|
380,262
|
377,425
|
3.7%
|
|
2
|
Cotton,
not carded or combed
|
216,745
|
359,348
|
373,078
|
3.7%
|
|
3
|
Cotton,
carded or combed
|
32,129
|
20,914
|
4,347
|
0.0%
|
|
4
|
Bed,
table, toilet and kitchen linens
|
2,639,180
|
2,844,973
|
2,516,655
|
24.9%
|
|
5
|
Curtains,
drapes & interior blinds
|
114,860
|
118,937
|
106,253
|
1.1%
|
|
6
|
Blankets
and travelling rugs
|
26,842
|
27,501
|
30,128
|
0.3%
|
|
7
|
Cotton
yarn (not sewing thread) 85% or more cotton, not retail
|
1,628,691
|
1,954,691
|
2,102,655
|
20.8%
|
|
8
|
Woven
cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight over 200 g/m2
|
707,920
|
928,723
|
1,087,564
|
10.8%
|
|
9
|
Woven
cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight less than 200 g/m2
|
668,591
|
789,914
|
728,088
|
7.2%
|
|
10
|
Woven
cotton fabrics, less than 85% cotton, mxd with manmade fibers, w
|
409,138
|
524,994
|
491,225
|
4.9%
|
|
11
|
Cotton,
not carded or combed
|
216,745
|
359,348
|
373,078
|
3.7%
|
|
12
|
Woven
fabrics of cotton
|
200,355
|
258,345
|
215,635
|
2.1%
|
|
13
|
Men's
shirts, knitted or crocheted
|
583,127
|
626,528
|
543,286
|
5.4%
|
|
14
|
Men's
suits, jackets, trousers
|
255,947
|
344,326
|
293,650
|
2.9%
|
|
15
|
T-shirts,
singlet and other vests, knitted or crocheted
|
307,061
|
324,603
|
290,836
|
2.9%
|
|
16
|
Panty
hose, tights, stockings & other hosiery, knitted or crocheted
|
276,146
|
267,701
|
259,925
|
2.6%
|
|
17
|
Women's
suits, dresses, skirt etc & short, knit
|
135,571
|
130,499
|
128,013
|
1.3%
|
|
18
|
Women's
blouses & shirts, knitted or crocheted
|
75,004
|
81,983
|
67,745
|
0.7%
|
|
19
|
Men's
underpants, pajamas, bathrobes etc,
|
49,959
|
61,191
|
51,385
|
0.5%
|
|
20
|
Women's
slips, panties, pajamas, bathrobes etc, knitted/crocheted
|
51,923
|
48,285
|
34,854
|
0.3%
|
|
21
|
Babies'
garments, knitted or crocheted
|
24,477
|
34,412
|
29,429
|
0.3%
|
|
Total
|
8,869,285
|
10,487,478
|
10,105,254
|
According
to Sheikh Ilyas Mehmood, Chairman Pakistan Textile Exporters Association the
grey cloth sold by Pakistan gives us a profit of Pounds Sterling 3 but with dyeing
and finishing the importer in UK earns 12. According to Mr Jawed Bilwani,
Chairman Pakistan Apparel Forum and Rana Muhammad Mushtaq Khan, Chairman
Pakistan Hosiery Manufacturers Association value added apparel sector is
converting raw cotton of 67 cents into value added finished goods worth 5-6
USD. [31]
Taking the above
multipliers and calculations of itemized / step wise value chain of cotton /
textile exports for 2012, the following estimates have been arrived at:
|
|
Stage 1
Raw Cotton
|
Stage 2
Spinning / Yarn
|
Stage 3
Weaving & made ups
|
Stage 4
Garments
|
Total
|
|
Present value of exports
|
USD 1127 Mil
|
USD 2102 Mil
|
USD 5175 Mil
|
USD 1699 Mil
|
10103
|
|
Sheikh Ilyas formula 1:4 utilizing 50% of
raw cotton
|
USD 563 Mil
|
USD 2102 Mil
|
USD 5175 Mil (existing) + USD 2252 Mil (from
conversion of 50% raw cotton)
|
USD 1699 Mil
|
11792
(16.71 % value addition)
|
|
67 cents to USD 5 formula utilizing 50% of
raw cotton
|
USD 563 Mil
|
USD 2102 Mil
|
USD 2653 Mil
|
USD 1699 Mil (existing) + USD 7544 Mil
(6700/500*563)
|
17084
(70 % value addition)
|
Similarly, the
total exports, item-wise, of leather and leather products is USD 2000 Mil.
Conversion of raw
hides / leather towards finished products has been calculated by a Kenyan Govt
study which gives the value addition ratio as Raw : Finished Leather : Finished
Product as 1:4:12. [32]
Converting / value adding to 50 % of the raw hides into finished leather and 50
% of the finished leather to finished product, the benefit comes as under:
|
|
Raw Hide
|
Finished Leather
|
Finished Product
|
Total
|
|
Existing export
|
USD 457 Mil
|
USD 776 Mil
|
USD 767 Mil
|
2000
|
|
Utilizing 50 % of Raw Hide into Finished
Leather
|
USD 228.5 Mil
|
USD 776 Mil + USD 914 Mil (228.5*4) = 1690
|
USD 767 Mil
|
2685
(34 % value addition)
|
|
Utilizing 50 % of the Finished Leather to
Finished Product
|
USD 228.5 Mil
|
USD 1690 Mil / 2 = 845 Mil
|
USD 767 Mil + USD 2535 Mil (845*3) = 3380
|
4453 (122 % value addition)
|
2.5
Competitiveness
The Global Competitiveness Report 2013-2014 states that the
world economy continues to emerge slowly from the recent economic crisis. As
advanced economies are searching for ways to speed up their economic engines,
emerging and developing countries have been important drivers of the global
economic recovery. As a result, the nature of the relationship between advanced
economies and emerging ones has evolved, and emerging and developing countries
have created stronger ties among themselves. Among the advanced economies, two
patterns seem to emerge: the United States, Canada, and Japan are expected to
grow at a gentle pace, while the prospects for the euro zone are more
uncertain. More generally, the new global economic landscape raises questions
as to the very distinction between advanced and emerging economies,
particularly when it comes to growth and competitiveness.
Competitiveness
is determined under three Stages consisting of twelve Pillars. The stages and
pillars are [33]
:
|
Stage
|
Pillar
|
|
Stage 1:
Factor Driven
|
·
Institutions
– Legal & administrative framework
·
Infrastructure
·
Macro-Economic
Environment
·
Health
and Primary Education
|
|
Stage 2:
Efficiency Driven
|
·
Higher
Education & Training
·
Goods
Market Efficiency – right mix as per supply-demand condition
·
Labour
Market Efficiency
·
Financial
Market Efficiency
·
Technological
Readiness
·
Market
size
|
|
Stage 3:
Innovation Driven
|
·
Business
Sophistication
·
Innovation
|
Pakistan
is still in Stage 1 out of 148 economies in various stages and part of the 38
in this Stage. In the overall Global Efficiency Index Pakistan is at 133 out of
the 148 countries accessed. A comparative chart of Pakistan with regional
countries would further highlight our competitiveness versus the region too:
|
Pillar and Position out of 148 countries
|
|||||||||||||
|
Country
|
Institutions
|
Infrastructure
|
Macro
Economic Environment
|
Health
& Primary Education
|
Higher
Education & Training
|
Goods
Market Efficiency
|
Labour
Market Efficiency
|
Financial
Market Development
|
Technological
Readiness
|
Market
Size
|
Business
Sophistication
|
Innovation
|
|
|
Pakistan
|
123
|
121
|
145
|
128
|
129
|
103
|
138
|
67
|
118
|
30
|
85
|
77
|
|
|
Singapore
|
3
|
2
|
18
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
7
|
34
|
17
|
9
|
|
|
India
|
72
|
85
|
110
|
102
|
91
|
85
|
99
|
19
|
98
|
3
|
42
|
41
|
|
|
Nepal
|
127
|
144
|
41
|
81
|
130
|
127
|
133
|
95
|
133
|
100
|
129
|
129
|
|
|
Bhutan
|
44
|
87
|
109
|
91
|
107
|
121
|
29
|
123
|
132
|
143
|
117
|
114
|
|
|
Bangladesh
|
131
|
132
|
79
|
104
|
127
|
89
|
124
|
102
|
127
|
45
|
113
|
131
|
|
|
Sri Lanka
|
54
|
73
|
120
|
52
|
62
|
37
|
135
|
41
|
93
|
61
|
34
|
49
|
|
|
Iran
|
83
|
65
|
100
|
51
|
88
|
110
|
145
|
130
|
116
|
19
|
104
|
71
|
|
|
Indonesia
|
67
|
61
|
26
|
72
|
64
|
50
|
103
|
60
|
75
|
15
|
37
|
33
|
|
|
Malaysia
|
29
|
29
|
38
|
33
|
46
|
10
|
25
|
6
|
51
|
26
|
20
|
25
|
|
|
Brunei
|
25
|
58
|
1
|
23
|
55
|
42
|
10
|
56
|
77
|
131
|
56
|
59
|
|
|
Vietnam
|
98
|
82
|
87
|
67
|
95
|
74
|
56
|
93
|
102
|
36
|
98
|
76
|
|
|
Laos
|
63
|
84
|
93
|
80
|
111
|
54
|
44
|
91
|
113
|
112
|
78
|
68
|
|
|
Thailand
|
78
|
47
|
31
|
81
|
66
|
34
|
62
|
32
|
78
|
22
|
40
|
66
|
|
|
China
|
47
|
48
|
10
|
40
|
70
|
61
|
34
|
54
|
85
|
2
|
45
|
32
|
|
|
Azerbaijan
|
59
|
69
|
8
|
109
|
87
|
71
|
30
|
88
|
50
|
72
|
70
|
51
|
|
|
Kazakhstan
|
55
|
62
|
23
|
97
|
54
|
56
|
15
|
103
|
57
|
54
|
94
|
84
|
|
|
Kyrgyz Republic
|
133
|
122
|
113
|
107
|
97
|
116
|
96
|
112
|
129
|
120
|
130
|
145
|
|
|
Turkey
|
56
|
49
|
76
|
59
|
65
|
43
|
130
|
51
|
58
|
16
|
43
|
50
|
|
2.6
Domestic Commerce
Countries that have captured foreign markets have ensured
quality control, product competitiveness and standards in their local markets. In
order for a product to be competitive it has to have lesser input cost, better
quality control standards, production on commercial scale and technological
base. On the supply side the production should have ample raw materials, be
subjected to lesser shocks like power outages and better standards. According
to a proposal submitted to the Chief Minister Punjab an investment of USD 7000
Million is required to augment the energy generation potential of Pakistan to
achieve the demand. [35]
Very little research has actually been conducted into the domestic
commerce sector in Pakistan. MoC launched studies in 2006 on Competitiveness,
Protection, Subsidies and incentive regimes, Market regulations, Retail
markets, Wholesale markets, Storage and warehousing, Transport, Real estate etc.
The reports concluded that domestic trade has small size of enterprises,
predominantly sole proprietorship and informal sector, primitive business
practices and attitudes, limited information flow and, most importantly, “lack
of standards and quality in all aspects of transaction’’ including lack of
concept of consumer rights inhibited competitiveness.
The reports continued that domestic commerce suffered from lack of
human capital, poor infrastructure, high tariffs and power service quality with
limited linkages outside of geographic area. The overall ability to compete was
low and market did not play its true role in stimulating domestic production,
generating growth and development. Value chain was disjointed and restricted
the potential for development of both domestic commerce as well as
international trade. [36]
Mr Salman Ghani, who has remained Federal Secretary
Commerce and Secretary Industries, stated that without the development of local
markets on structured lines improvements in exports, volume and quality, was
not possible. He stated that we should focus on regional trade, product
diversity and greater value addition. Entire dependence on textile sector was
an essential fallacy. He stated that quality standards must first be ensured in
domestic commerce and best way would be to ensure competitiveness instead of
rebate margins. Our products should be environmentally correct and socially
compliant. In product diversification we should concentrate on light engineering
also such as fans, cables etc and ensure international compliances. Similar was
the case with meat and poultry. Local markets suffered with distortions more so
the archaic, and often not required, regulatory mechanism of the Government.
There is no differential price for quality, he added.
2.7
Transport and Trade
During the ‘Regional Conference on Strengthening
Transport Connectivity and Trade Facilitation in South & South West Asia’
held in Lahore on 9-10 Dec, 2013 under the auspices of UN Economic and Social
Commission for Asia and Pacific (UNESCAP) it was highlighted that the
traditional and historical route in the shape of a crescent running from Turkey
through Iran, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh needs to be re-activated to join
South Asia and South West Asia. This road and rail network would augment the
already existing ports network and shipping lanes and even connect Bhutan and
Nepal reducing dependence on fossil fuel and lessening freight charges. Transit
traffic is traffic in services and would harmonize operated platforms, promote
interoperability of transport services, inter-country infrastructure leading to
more trade. The global concepts have in any case moved from port to port
connectivity to door to door connectivity and in future would ensure networking
of all areas on the same grid. The Conference noted that transport and transit
facilities are needed not so much to cover ‘distances’ but to overcome border
crossings. These result in opportunities of investment in warehouses, vehicles
and ports for the host country inducing economic activities, rest areas,
hotels, workshops etc. The economies of scale and improved connectivity reduce
costs of the transit country’s own trade.
The Conference further analyzed that 57% of intraregional
export potential remains unexploited in SAARC or 53% in South & South West
Asia region. It could generate additional USD 52 billion of trade as the export
potential of USD 167 billion by 2017 is there in intraregional trade between
the three overlapping RTAs of ECO, SAARC
and BIMSTEC.
The Conference proposed the potential trade corridors for
integrating ECO, SAARC and BIMSTEC transport as below:
1. Turkey-Iran-Pakistan-India-Bangladesh-Myanmar Road
Corridor along Asian Highway routes
2. Istanbul-Tehran-Islamabad—Delhi-Kolkota-Dhaka container
train corridor along the Trans-Asian Railway routes [37]
3.1 Historical Perspective
During
1947-58, due to lack of infrastructure and major
industrial base exports consisted of primary goods such as raw cotton, raw tea
and jute etc. Major exports were to UK and India at 67 %. Exports to European
countries were 10.4 %, USA 8.9 % and China 1.1 % in 1948-49. [38]
Export incentives were introduced in 1954 and currency was also devalued in
July, 1955 to increase exports. These efforts proved transitory as the exports
again fell down in 1958-59. Subsequently Gen Ayub’s government introduced
various initiatives to improve exports like Export Bonus Scheme (15th
January, 1959) on non-traditional commodities, Export Credit Guarantee Scheme
(May 1962) to cover export risks, Export Market Development Fund (1966) to
facilitate market surveys and established Trading Corporation of Pakistan in
1967 to implement barter agreements and bulk imports. Other measures included
Pakistan Trade Offices abroad and introduction of annual export policy in 1968.
A lot of new private enterprises were established. The share of manufactured
goods in exports increased from 17.3% in 1958-59 to 47.78%. [39]
During
Bhutto’s (1972-77) era the currency was devalued by 56 % to increase exports
but the oil crisis of the 1970s had a severe impact. The thrust of policies
favoured big exporters and the export destinations changed with USA now at 17 %
followed by Japan (14.3%), UK (8.1%) and Saudi Arabia (6.9%). [40] Zia’s regime (1978-88) offered export rebates
and income tax concessions for promotion of exports. Export
licensing was simplified during 1988-99 and Foreign currency accounts were allowed to improve national
deposits for fulfilling international commitments. Exports doubled during the
period 1999-2009 but imports increased by four times resulting in extreme
negative balance of trade, the major reasons for which were demand shrinkage,
financial crisis, protectionist policies, power shortages, bad law and order,
unskilled entrepreneurship, poor performance of commercial officers, amongst
many. [41]
3.2
Strategic Trade Policy Frameworks 2009-12
STPF
2009-12 was framed to support macroeconomic policies & services; enhancing
product sophistication level of Pakistani exports through innovation and
induction of latest technology; enhancing firm level competitiveness through
skills up-gradation, entrepreneurship development with efficient production
processes; introducing domestic commerce reform through better storage
facilities, improving supply chain with better business environment, quality
management with improving tertiary level services; product and market
diversification with the expansion of range of markets, upgrading quality of
products and availing opportunities offered under the then international
business regime after WTO; and making trade work towards the sustainable
development of Pakistan. [42]
3.3 Strategic Trade Policy Framework 2012-15
The
STPF 2012-15 sets its goals as (i) Making export sector an engine of growth;
(ii) enhance Pakistan’s export competitiveness in short and long term; and
(iii) increasing Pakistan’s cumulative exports to USD 95 Billion during
2012-15. The principal elements of STPF 2012-15 include; (i) Focus on Regional
Trade – including establishment of Pakistan Land Port Authority; (ii) Create
Regulatory Efficiencies; (iii) Promote Agro-based exports; (iv) Increase
exports from less developed regions in Pakistan; (v) Promote exports in services
sector – this includes creation of Foreign Trade Wing and a Services Export
Development Council; (vi) Enhance access to export financing and credit
guarantees – this include setting of Export Import (EXIM) Bank; (vii) Revamp
Export Promotion Agencies; (viii) Mobilize new investment in export oriented
industries (ix) Facilitate Exporting Industry overcome energy crisis (x) Enhance
Product and Market Development and Diversification (xi) Undertake effective
Trade Diplomacy (xii) Increasing Green Exports (xiii) Rationalize the Tariff Protection
Policy (xiv) Enhance Role of Women in Exports Reform and Develop Domestic
Commerce [43]
It has looked into the domestic factors but the external
factors are not much supportive as the world economic recession is not over.
Negative travel advisories by the major export destinations like USA, European
Economic Union and other developed countries pose a serious challenge to the
policy makers in Pakistan.
The global
trend for trade is shifting from Agro-based produce to manufactured goods with
enhanced value chain efficiency. The second noticeable shift is an emphasis
towards the services sector including transport and tourism. Pakistan
unfortunately not only lacks in tourism but its transport infrastructure and
national carriers such as PIA and PNSC are all in a weak state. [44]
3.4 Donor
Assistance on Trade Management
Pakistan
has been currently benefiting from a €10 million TRTA II programme funded by EU
since January 2010 with major focus on the public sector and a €4.5 million
TRTA III private sector development programme which has just started. The TRTA
II focuses on WTO-related public sector capacity building through support
towards evaluation of FTAs and PTAs. It includes gender and environment as
crosscutting issues. TRTA II has 3 components: trade policy capacity building;
export development through improvement of quality infrastructure; and
strengthening of the intellectual property rights framework and infrastructure;
TRTA III is
a Private Sector Development Program running for the years 2011-17. Its focus
is on private sector development via export diversification and promotion; in
two sectors i.e. Leather products and Gems & Jewellery sector via privates
sector organisations. It has a separate component in Fisheries sector to
emphasize on the advantage of lifting of ban by EU. [45]
3.5
Trade & Economic Diplomacy
The term ‘Economic Diplomacy’ was first used by Chinese Premier
at his meeting with the representatives from developing countries in August
2004. China’s economic diplomacy has experienced two stages: the previous one
was characterized by the fact that economy promoted diplomacy and the current
one is that diplomacy promotes economy Currently, China enters into the stage
that economy and diplomacy mutually support each other, that is, economy,
politics and diplomacy are more balanced.
The differences in perceiving the role of economy and diplomacy
in these discussions are in line with the two types of economic diplomacy
defined by Yi Lu, a professor of China Foreign Affairs University. In his view,
the first type is to use economic means to reach specific political objectives
or diplomatic strategic intention; the second is to focus on economic relations
in the state’s external relations. Through developing its own economy and
relying on diplomatic approaches, the state is to solve economic issues, rectify
and coordinate economic policy, safeguard the state’s rights in its external
economic relations, and increase national economic interest. [46]
Canada has
an agency called Trade Commissioner Service[47]
(TCS) which is part of Canada’s
embassies and consulates abroad. It provides on-the-ground intelligence and practical
advice for better, more timely and cost-effective decision-making in matters of
international trade through privileged access to foreign governments, key
business leaders and decision-makers.
The service
helps thousands of companies each year to handle concrete problems and pursue
trade opportunities in foreign markets with presence in 150 cities across the
globe. It also has offices inside Canada to offer help to prospective
customers. Its business contacts include potential customers, distributors,
sources of finance or investment, technology partners and intermediaries. TCS
helps customers to export, establish company abroad, tackle a market access
issue, pursue a joint venture abroad, participate in global value chain and
seek technology.
Pakistan on
the other hand relies solely on Trade Officers and is planning to shut down 22
Missions. [48]
On the other hand, China & India have got ‘observer’ status in Arctic
Council of all the places. [49]
Conclusion
Regional trade provides the best
opportunities for export due to lesser transport cost and trade diversion.
Therefore, Pakistan’s focus should be more on regional trade for market access
and geographical diversification.
While inking trade agreements, Pakistan’s exports
interests have, in particular cases, not been properly protected in terms of
providing market access to our major exports by lowering tariff and NTBs on
goods in demand in the importing country.
Issues of political nature between Pakistan and India
have affected the true potential of trade not only between the two countries
but in the whole SAARC region.
Pakistan has not fully realized the
potential of RTAs and BTAs as a stepping stone for transit of Pakistani exports
/ products to new markets such as Africa.
While geographical presence of Pakistani
exports is there in most areas of the world, its share in the overseas markets
remains negligible due to, amongst others, lack of market research and
synergies between public and private sector stakeholders.
The
traditional exports of Pakistan like Textiles, Rice and Leather are of
world-class quality and requires demand-based increase in market share in
existing markets as well as exploration of new markets.
The
efficiency of traditional sectors needs be enhanced by investing in value
chain, upgradation of technology and skill development of human resource.
Pakistan
needs product diversification towards non-traditional items presently in demand
in international markets such as fisheries, halal food including poultry,
fruit, vegetables, wheat, IT software and services, marble and granite, gems
and jewelry, tobacco, engineering goods, chemicals, healthcare and general
services including that of back office.
Pakistan’s
supply chains through regional trade are not formed. Services sector like
banking and information technology can become a major source of our exports as
our workforce is English-speaking and can tap markets left by India as it
matures into becoming IT hub for the world.
Pakistan’s
position in the Global Efficiency Index is generally poor compared to regional
countries. Urgent measures need to be taken to improve our standing.
The supply chain in domestic commerce is very primitive due to
lack of market data, Farm to Market Roads and perishability of agricultural
produce. Domestic commerce suffers from lack of human capital, poor
infrastructure, high tariffs and power service quality with limited linkages
outside of geographic area. Value chain is disjointed and has restricted the
potential for development of both domestic commerce as well as international
trade.
Pakistan needs to develop rail and road linkages with its
neighbours on fast track basis.
Our policy of disallowing transit trade for Indian goods
towards CARs and ECO countries needs to be revisited.
The overall design of STPFs is forward looking and based
on ground realities. However, there is no proper implementation and monitoring
& evaluation structure comprising all stake-holders including ‘Specialists’
to take a complex subject such as “Commerce and Trade” forward.
The
emerging economic powers are now focused on trade-led diplomacy while Pakistan
lacks in this respect. Pakistan’s foreign missions are not designed towards
trade diplomacy.
Recommendations
– Strategy
Regional trade provides the best
opportunities for export due to lesser transport cost and trade diversion.
Therefore, Pakistan’s focus should be more on regional trade for market access
and geographical diversification. (Medium
to Long term)
To derive maximum benefit out of the
regional trade Pakistan should not only go for freer trade in more and more
diverse product and services in the region but should also look into the
existing agreements for easing of tariff and NTBs strictly in light of our
comparative advantage. (Medium to Long term)
The conversion of PTAs with Iran,
Indonesia and Mauritius into FTAs may be examined to further reduce tariff
barriers keeping in view our interests. A brief interlude of EHP may be
launched before the FTA to monitor its progress; (Short to Medium term)
The existing FTAs may be re-visited to
abolish the list of items which are not even produced in Pakistan and add items
which Pakistan actually exports or which are in demand in the importing
country. (Short term)
In FTA with China duties imposed on our
textile products should be re-negotiated to rationalize them to put Pakistan
exports at a level playing field with ASEAN. (Short term)
In FTA with Malaysia, the concessions
given by Pakistan through reduction of tariffs on palm oil as their principal
export should be reciprocated by inclusion of concessions for our Basmati Rice
and kinnoo which are in demand there instead of non-utilized concessions for
poultry and round cabbage. (Short term)
Pakistan should reciprocate MFN status to
india and change the nomenclature to Non Discriminatory Access immediately in
order to get access for its textiles produce in the Indian market and develop
low cost supply chains of intermediate goods at home from primary goods
imported from India. (Short to Medium term)
Pakistan should fully realize the
potential of trade agreements as a stepping stone for transit of Pakistani
exports such as using PTA with Mauritius
to expand our exports into Africa. (Short to Long term)
A Market
Intelligence, Research and Exploration Commission may be formed at the
national level as an e-Commerce initiative, comprising businessmen,
manufacturers, researchers, producers, public sector representatives etc with
TDAP acting as support unit serving as a hub. This Commission should be
connected to all Trade Officers of Pakistan in foreign countries. Firms /
individuals should be hired in those countries for market research, market
access, standards / certification requirements etc. The connectivity of all
stakeholders should be through internet with forward-backward linkages. The
payment to the hired firms / individuals should be performance based. The purpose
of the Commission would be to carry out market research and intelligence for a
demand-based export in traditional and non-traditional products and services in
existing and potential markets. The whole business process of the Commission
would be web-based. (Short to Long term)
The EXIM Bank, already proposed, should extend
low-interest loan to export related Industry for Balancing, Modernization and
Replacement. It should also finance value addition in Industry and skills.
Cascading in tariff structure to benefit value addition in exports must be
introduced. (Short to Long term)
Exhibitions
& Workshops as well as advocacy projection through media / internet must be
carried out to ensure product diversification towards non-traditional items
presently in demand in international markets such as fisheries, halal food
including poultry, IT software and services, marble and granite, gems and
jewelry, tobacco, engineering goods, chemicals, healthcare and general services
including that of back office. (Short to Long
term)
The factors
determining Pakistan’s position in the Global
Efficiency Index, already focused on the STPF, should be given priority. (Short to Long term)
The supply chain in domestic commerce should be improved through
availability of market data, storage facility and Farm to Market Roads. and skilled human capital, infrastructure,
high tariffs and power service quality with limited linkages outside of
geographic area. Value chain is disjointed and has restricted the potential for
development of both domestic commerce as well as international trade. (Short
to Long term)
Maximum investment should be made in the four links
through road and (where possible) rail, including links to connect China,
Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and India. (Short to Long term)
A proper implementation and monitoring & evaluation
mechanism may be evolved for the strategies detailed for promotion of Commerce
and Trade in the STPF 2012-15. (Short term)
Pakistan’s foreign policy should give due importance to
trade. The Trade Offices abroad must be strengthened and a new group “The
Foreign Service and External Trade Group” must be introduced to further the
economic/trade diplomacy through specialized human resource. (Short term)
Plan-B
Our
worst-case scenario is that the power deficiency is not met due to lack of
investment (USD 7000 Million are required) affecting our strategy to increase
production towards exports. In such a case, instead of utilization of
development funds for other purposes it should be capped for three years and
diverted towards investments in power sector. The existing federal PSDP and
Annual Development Plans of the Provinces is approximately USD 15 billion.
[1] Globalization and
International Trade – World Bank, http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/beyond/beyondco/beg_12.pdf
accessed on 16 January, 2014
[2] http://www.wto.org/english/docs_e/legal_e/gatt47_e.pdf
accessed on 13 January, 2014
[3] http://rufuspollock.org/wto/wto_basicfacts.htm
accessed on 14 January, 2014
[4] World Trade
Organization, http://www.wto.org
accessed on 18 Jan, 2014
[5] International
Trade Centre, http://www.trademap.org
accessed on 20 Jan, 2014
[6] Own calculation
by Syndicate
[7] Preliminary study
on Pakistan and China trade partnership post FTA, The Pakistan Business
Council, http://www.pbc.org.pk/assets/pdf/21-Oct_Pakistan_China_Trade_Study_2013.pdf
accessed on 16 Jan, 2014
[8] Op.Cit Note 5
[9] http://www.Pakistantoday.com.pk
accessed on 20 Jan, 2014
[10] Op.Cit Note 5
[11] Pakistan Exports
to Malaysia grow by 6.15 percent, Pakistan Today, 28 Feb, 2013
[12] Op.Cit Note 5
[13] Ministry of
Commerce, Pakistan, http://www.commerce.gov.pk/?page_id=215
accessed on 18 Jan, 2014
[14] Cement sector
outlook positive, Mohiuddin Aazim, The Daily Dawn, 11 Nov, 2012
[15] Op.Cit Note 5
[16] Pakistan and
Indonesia Trade Partnership – Sep 2013, The Pakistan Business Council
[17] Op.Cit Note 5
[18] Op.Cit 5
[19] Rice Exports to
Iran fall 82 %, Shahram Haq, The Express Tribune, 21 Mar, 2013
[20] Pakistan Bureau
of Statistics
[21]
http://www.pildat.org/publications/publication
accessed on 15 January, 2014
[22]
Pak India Business Council, http://pakindiabusinesscouncil.com/projects.html
accessed on 15 January 2014
[23]
Trade Liberalization
Between India And Pakistan: A Regional Perspective, http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/pak-india-trade/Chap_5.pdf accessed on 16 January, 2014
[24] GSP Plus status
to boost Pakistani Exports – says Dar, The Daily Dawn, 12 Dec 2013
[25]
Submission of Ministry of Commerce on Performance of Exports before the Senate
Standing Committee on Commerce held on 27th Nov, 2013
[26] Roadmap for Export Enhancement & Diversification in Pakistan,
Research and Development Department, The Lahore Chamber of Commerce and
Industry – Jul, 2013
[27]
Gul, Nazia and Yasin, Hafiz.M, The Trade Potential of Pakistan: An Application
of the Gravity Model, The Lahore Journal of
Economics, 16 : 1 (Summer 2011): pp. 23-62
[28] Breaking into new
Markets –Emerging lessons for Export Diversifications by Paul Brenton
wits.worldbank.org/WITS.docs/brenton_export_diversification
[29] Aid for Trade and
Value Chains in Textiles and Apparels, WTO, www.oecd.org accessed on 20 Jan, 2014
[30] Op.Cit Note 5
[31] www.texglobe.com
[32] Presentation by
Dr Mwinyikione Mwinyihija, Hides, Skins and Leather Value addition Initiatives;
The Kenyan Scenario, http://www.undp.org/drylands/docs/marketaccess/Roundtable
accessed on 20 Jan, 2014
[33]
The Global Competitiveness Report 2013-2014, World Economic Forum, http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2013-14.pdf
accessed on 16 January, 2014
[34] Own calculation
by the Syndicate
[35] Mr Anwaar ul Haq,
Director Investments, PIDB
[36] Domestic Commerce
(Improving Competitiveness and Productivity) – Report prepared by Humayun
Akhtar Khan and Approved by the Prime Minister of Pakistan in 2007
[37]
presentations of the Conference through email by Mr Habibullah Khan, Secretary
Ports and Shipping Pakistan
[38]
Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Finance, Economy of Pakistan 1948-68. Islamabad: Department of Films &
Publications, October 1968. 97-100.
[39]
Ibid. 105-117.
[40]
Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Finance, Survey of Pakistan .Islamabad: 1978-79.
[41]
Dr. Ishrat Hussain, Economy of Pakistan - past, present and future. Washington DC: 27 January, 2004. Dr. Ishrat
gave this address on Islamization and economy of Pakistan.
[42]
Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Commerce. Strategic Trade Policy Framework 2009-11. Islamabad 2009.
[43]
Ministry of Commerce, Government of Pakistan, Summary for Cabinet titled
“Strategic Trade Policy Framework 2012-15” http://www.pcdapakistan.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Strategic-TRADE-POLICY-2012-2015.pdf
accessed on 15 January 2014
[44] https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_archive/2012chap2.pdf
accessed on 21 Jan, 2014
[45] Brief from
information emailed by Additional Secretary, Economic Affairs Division,
Government of Pakistan
[46]
China’s economic diplomacy and Sino Eu relations, www1.euskadi.net/ekonomiaz/downloadPDF.apl?REG=1255
accessed on 20 Jan, 2014
[47]
Government of Canada, Canadian Trade Commissioner Service
http://www.tradecommissioner.gc.ca/eng/how-tcs-can-help.jsp
(accessed 20 Jan,2014)
[48]
Syed, Baqir Sajjad, Govt considers closing down mission in 22 countries, the
Daily Dawn, 5 Jul 2013, http://www.dawn.com/news/1022877/govt-considers-closing-missions-in-22-countries
accessed on 20 Jan, 2014
[49]
http://www.dawn.com/news/1011638/china-india-get-observer-seats-on-arctic-council
Comments
Post a Comment