Population Explosion in Pakistan - Challenges of Urban Centres
Population Explosion in Pakistan -
Challenges of Urban Centers
The Washington Post, quoting preliminary results from the 2017 national
census in Pakistan, has stated that our population rose by 57 % since last
census in 1998 reaching 207.7 Billion making us fifth most populous country in
the world. [1] Census data shows astronomical increase in
Urban population at 36.4 % through rapid urbanization confronting us with
issues of climate change, deforestation, pollution, waste management and
overall issue of youth bulge. [2]
Essentials
of Urban Centres
UNHABITAT, indicators [3]
include Shelter ; Social Development and Eradication of
Poverty; Environmental Management;
Economic
Development & Governance.
Development Of Urban Indicators: A Malaysian Initiative [4]
enumerates them as Land use, Population, Households, Economic, Socio-economic
development, Infrastructure, Transport, Environmental management, Local
government, Affordable & adequate housing and Housing provision
Analysis
Overview of Population growth in Urban Centres
Population growth in urban centres has two distinct
reasons. Its mostly migration from rural areas augmented on the other hand by
local population growth. [5]
Half of world’s total population now live in urban settlements, and over the
next 20 years atleast in developing world ALL population is expected to be only
in urban areas. This pace will out-strip the pace of planned urbanization,
create squatter settlements and shanty towns, create small cities. Data
confirms that it’s the smaller, mushrooming, cities where provision of piped water, waste disposal,
electricity, and schools suffer compared to residents of medium or large
cities.
Pakistan’s
perspective - Rapid Population Growth
Rapid
increase in urban population of Pakistan from 1998 to 2014 is observed at 43.0
million in 1998 and 72.5 million in 2014. Pakistan is predicted to be primarily
urbanized by 2025. Currently almost 47% of urban population resides in ten
major cities, each with the population of more than 1 million. Increase in
rural-urban migration is the key factor in this conglomeration. Push factor
includes low agrarian output, landlessness and sub-division of land, poor
economic, educational and health opportunities whereas pull factor at
destination includes better wages, improved living standards, availability of
standard education and health, urban infrastructure.
Major
cities of Pakistan are experiencing both urban population growth, and urban
expansion (horizontal development). Such as, in 1965 both major cities Karachi
and Lahore had more than 1 million urbanities within their fringes, but their
expansion overwhelmed other adjoining towns and especially rural areas by the
1990s. [6]
Urban
poverty is on the rise, with one in eight urban dwellers living below the
poverty line. [7]
According to the World Bank, Pakistan’s
urbanization is also ‘messy and hidden’: Messy from
low-density sprawl and hidden as cities grow beyond administrative boundaries
to include ‘ruralopilises’, which are
densely populated rural areas and outskirts not officially designated as
cities.
Unfortunately,
urbanisation also presents major economic challenges. An obvious example is how
rising city populations, and the consequent high demand for low-income urban
employment, overwhelm an already constrained job market. [8]
Indicators
– As Is & Analysis
(1) Shelter including Housing, durable structures,
overcrowding, access to safe water, access to improved sanitation, connection
to services
At present Pakistan has a serious housing backlog and
crisis. In 1998, 4.3 million housing unit were estimated, and had climbed to 9
million as supplementary housing unit. Pakistan Standard National tenancy
rate/unit is more than 6, with the density of 3.5 persons per room as compare
to 1.1 persons per room with international standard.. Due to the lack of
affordable housing for urban poor, inhabitants are forced to live in slums
developed primarily as illegal invasion build in low laying area, for example
beside water ways, natural drain, nearby the work location within fringe of
low-cost dwellings.
The State Bank of Pakistan has estimated that across all major cities, urban
housing was approximately 4.4 million units short of demand in 2015. If current
trends continue, Pakistan’s five largest cities will account for 78 percent of
the total housing shortage by 2035. [9] .
The World Bank estimates that poor
sanitation costs Pakistan around 3.9 percent of GDP, PKR 343.7 Billion;
diarrhea-related death and disease among children under five being the largest
contributor.
Water quality has not much improved due to several
reasons including contamination of water sources and old infrastructure. [10]
(2) Social Development and Eradication of Poverty
including under-five mortality, HIV Prevalence, Literacy and School Enrolment
The
latest UNICEF report states that Pakistan has the worst infant mortality rate
in the world. [11]Polio
is also out of control due to the inadequate and improper sanitation. . [12] While
poverty level is lower in Urban, its fast catching up – as UN-Habitat (2003)
put it “Urbanization of Poverty” is on way.
Human
poverty indicators, such as health, housing, safe drinking water, sanitation,
and waste collection facilities in deprived or neglected areas of the city are
in worst conditions. Urban poor comprises of housing with low standards,
vitally use well/ underground water, with open drains, poor waste disposal,
which prevents chronic diseases and majority of them are being suffered with
these diseases. Provision of education facilities (especially for girls),
health facilities and access to electricity in public sector plays a
significant role while explaining the poverty level and its differences.
With the
exception of immunization, utilization of basic public health services is
very low in urban areas. [13]
A rise in
concrete structures across the urban landscape is increasing temperatures
within cities. In 2015, an unanticipated heat wave in Karachi led
to almost 1,500 deaths.
(3)
Environmental Management including urban population growth
Problems related to environment problems in urban
vicinity comprise air-noise, water contamination, also relates problem to
wastes (hazardous and deadly waste). Track of urbanization or industrialization
directs a decline in healthy environment. Using fuel, fossils as a whole within
industries, households as well as transportation causes massive contamination
in urban atmosphere. In addition, most hazardous and toxic waste are being dispose
off as fluid waste.
Air pollution is a big challenge in urban centres of
Pakistan including Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, and Quetta indicating
a high concentration of SPM 2.5 microns (suspended particulate matter), and
reached at level that is 2 to 3.5 higher than (NEQS) National Environmental
Quality Standards.
(4) Economic Development including unemployment
About 80 percent of urban households in Pakistan earn PKR
26,000 per month or less, and about 60 percent make less than PKR
21,000 per month. Essentially energy drives economy of a country but Pakistan
is hit by excessive load shedding, load management affecting production and
hence economic development leading to unemployment.
Pakistan Economic Survey as recently as for 2015-16 reported
a negative growth of 0.19 % in Agriculture sector. [14]
(5) Governance.
Demographic
change in Pakistani urban centres and cities has fuelled ethno-political tensions
and urban violence. Future of the Pakistani cities will be shaped by quality of
urban governance, however municipal corporations and development authorities
lacking in technical expertise and resources essential for good governance and
modern urban planning.
The
Devolution of Power Plan in 2001 provided system were decentralization of
power/control for local decision making, and the development of Citizen
Community Boards (CCBs) to ensure participation of public in the decision
making. However, the system was closed down by the later government in 2008 and
the system of urban governance returned back to local municipal and development
authorities. [15]
(6)
General Issues
Migration
to urban areas disturbs the ethnic and cultural fabric. This leads to conflicts
and power struggles. Karachi has seen its fair share of struggles between
native Sindhis, Urdu Speaking migrants and Pakhtuns moving to it in 1960s till
date. With all these groups striving for dominance in jobs, political
representation and businesses Karachi has suffered intrinsic conflicts more
often than not. Such ethnic divides also forge links with criminal gangs and
ethnic based political parties.
Inadequate
public transport and accessible car loan via commercial banks is leading to a
great increase of private vehicles on roads in major cities of Pakistan. This
fact is generating serious traffic congestion, deterioration of environment and
air pollution in cities.
Pakistan is the most rapidly urbanizing country in South
Asia. [16] This trend of population shifts outpacing the
resources of urban communities has paved the way for what a 2012 World Bank
report identifies as “Messy and Hidden” urbanization, or the existence of
millions of people who live in slums without access to basic services. These
hidden areas have allowed safe havens to come up for crime, gang violence, and
even terrorist groups.
War on Terror has also been a major contributor to
migration to urban centres including from Afghanistan, FATA & peripheral
areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. [17]
Way Forward For Sustainable Urban
Development
A locally rooted, democratized culture of sustainability has to be the
foundation of urban development. However, in case of Pakistan its not so much
future planned urban development but to pick the pieces of already unplanned
one towards betterment that governs our way forward.
And the best way forward consists of one word containing 19 letters – METROPOLITANIZATION !!
Why ?! Because:-
a)
It will create urban agglomeration, urban-rural
interdependence and networked urban structures. These sub-centers assume
different roles, such as the agriculture producer in shape of farms, the
industrial and economic hub, the environmental balancer as in green and wooded
areas, including rural;
b)
Dedicated local renewable energy production not
dependent on national grid. This can include solar and wind, and will also
contribute towards business requirements;
c)
Eco-system maintenance such as water
regulation & purification, waste treatment,
erosion regulation, climate regulation, natural hazard regulation over a
sizable area as well as protection of watershed which is outside of built-up
area;
d)
Proper public transport facilities in shape of metros coupled with proper
infrastructure for non-motorized traffic such as cyclists and pedestrians. The
more private motorized transport is discouraged, the more we will be nearer to
zero emissions;
e)
Democratic institutions
which on one hand provide a platform to National and Provincial Governments to delegate actual authority till the
neighbourhood level and on the other are all-inclusive comprising not only the elected
but also technocrats, academic partners and representatives from services;
f)
Legal and regulatory changes
on best practice rather than compromise. Commercially
viable solutions instead of popular ones should be the benchmark to sustain
urban development;
g)
A financing model wherein
local governments move towards budgetary
independence through property tax, user charges etc and get augmentation
through provincial transfers.
h)
E-Governance providing citizens convenience of doing business
with government, right to information, zero tolerance on corruption and open
accss to public information.
i)
Migrations will NOT stop. Inclusive pro-poor strategies are reqired. UNDP
notes that [18]
it is vital to ensure that individual migrants settle in well on arrival so
enduring that migrant children have equal access to education and support to
catch up and integrate, can improve their prospects and avoid a future
underclass. Language training for all
family members is key to cohesion and ensuring the migrant family becomes
part of the urban centre’s body-politic.
j)
Robust Health System emphasizing, and investing in, preventive health
more than curative to bring down Out Of Pocket expenditure through availability
at door step and reducing cost of treatment through family medicine.
‘A
disaster in the making’: Pakistan’s population surges to 207.7 million, Pamela
Constable,
washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/a-disaster-in-the-making-pakistans-population-has-more-than-doubled-in-20-years/2017/09/08/4f434c58-926b-11e7-8482-8dc9a7af29f9_story.html?utm_term=.d7242a83f042
Exploding Population Bomb, Zahid Hussain,
dawn.com/news/1354793
unhabitat.org/urban-indicators-guidelines-monitoring-the-habitat-agenda-and-the-millennium-development-goals/
lgt.lt/geoin/files/S3_Paper2.rtf
Urbanization in developing countries: Current
trends, future projections, and key challenges for sustainability, Barney
Cohen, sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160791X05000588
Urbanization
in Pakistan: Challenges and Way Forward-(Options) For Sustainable Urban
Development; Waqar Ahmed Khan Jatoo* , Chen Jing Fu, Wimonsiri Saengkrod, Abdul
Ghaffar Mastoi, 4th
International Conference on Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development
2016
The
six biggest challenges facing Pakistan’s urban future, Hina SHaikh & Ijaz
Nabi,
https://www.theigc.org/blog/the-six-biggest-challenges-facing-pakistans-urban-future/
Urbanisation
in Pakistan: causes and consequences Michael Kugelman,
https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/159296/4c5b5fa0ebc5684da2b9f244090593bc.pdf
tribune.com.pk/story/1639445/3-babies-born-poorest-countries-still-face-alarming-risks-unicef/
tribune.com.pk/story/1171496/rural-urban-areas-migration-increases-drop-agri-income-levels/
Urbanization in Pakistan, A Governance
Perspective; Nasira Jabeen * Umm-e- Farwa ** Musa Jadoon*, pu.edu.pk/images/journal/history/PDF-FILES/9_54_1_17.pdf
“Messy and Hidden” Urbanization: A
Security Challenge for Pakistan: Zainab Ahmad, southasianvoices.org/messy-and-hidden-urbanization-a-security-challenge-for-pakistan
Migration and
Urbanization-UNFPA-Pakistan; pakistan.unfpa.org/en/topics/migration-and-urbanization
sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/challenges_and_way_forward_in_the_urban_sector_web.pdf
washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/a-disaster-in-the-making-pakistans-population-has-more-than-doubled-in-20-years/2017/09/08/4f434c58-926b-11e7-8482-8dc9a7af29f9_story.html?utm_term=.d7242a83f042
[2] Exploding Population Bomb, Zahid Hussain,
dawn.com/news/1354793
[3]unhabitat.org/urban-indicators-guidelines-monitoring-the-habitat-agenda-and-the-millennium-development-goals/
[5] Urbanization in developing countries: Current trends, future projections, and key challenges for sustainability, Barney Cohen, sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160791X05000588
[6] Urbanization in Pakistan: Challenges and Way
Forward-(Options) For Sustainable Urban Development; Waqar Ahmed Khan Jatoo* ,
Chen Jing Fu, Wimonsiri Saengkrod, Abdul Ghaffar Mastoi, 4th International
Conference on Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development 2016
[7] The
six biggest challenges facing Pakistan’s urban future, Hina SHaikh & Ijaz
Nabi,
https://www.theigc.org/blog/the-six-biggest-challenges-facing-pakistans-urban-future/
[8] Urbanisation in Pakistan: causes and
consequences Michael Kugelman, https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/159296/4c5b5fa0ebc5684da2b9f244090593bc.pdf
[10] As 6 above
[11] tribune.com.pk/story/1639445/3-babies-born-poorest-countries-still-face-alarming-risks-unicef/
[12] as 6 above
[13] as 7 above
[14] tribune.com.pk/story/1171496/rural-urban-areas-migration-increases-drop-agri-income-levels/
[15] Urbanization in Pakistan, A Governance
Perspective; Nasira Jabeen * Umm-e- Farwa ** Musa Jadoon*, pu.edu.pk/images/journal/history/PDF-FILES/9_54_1_17.pdf
[16] “Messy and Hidden” Urbanization: A
Security Challenge for Pakistan: Zainab Ahmad, southasianvoices.org/messy-and-hidden-urbanization-a-security-challenge-for-pakistan
[17]
Migration and Urbanization-UNFPA-Pakistan; pakistan.unfpa.org/en/topics/migration-and-urbanization
[18] sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/challenges_and_way_forward_in_the_urban_sector_web.pdf
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